Climate Technology Change - part 1

Are we really greening the grid?

Energy giant RWE operates a coal-fired power station, as well as wind turbines in North-Rhine Westphalia

Last week I joined The Economist’s talk on climate technology given by four of their journalists. It was a good opportunity to hear their summary about the latest climate technology and how it’s been pivoting quickly with Russian gas becoming more restricted in Europe.

The immediate result of Russia’s aggressive invasion of Ukraine has been a European energy shock. This has been particularly badly felt in Germany which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, having closed all but three of its nuclear power stations with all coal-fired stations set to close by 2038 at the latest.

It’s a tricky time for Germany’s Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister, whose top priority is securing energy supplies, even though the core issue for his environmentalist Green Party is the phasing out of coal and nuclear as quickly as possible.

Has energy security taken priority over climate and environmental goals?

Yes.

Europe is buying lots of natural gas from around the world to replace the Russian gas which could be cut off at any point. Huge, liquid natural gas (LNG) terminals are quickly springing up on the east coast of the US, to help quell some of this new demand.

Germany and other countries are in a rush, because gas storage tanks need to be filled this summer, if the lights are to remain on this autumn and winter, at a price which is still tolerable for the consumer.

Fuel switching, but in the wrong way is also happening, with coal plants being allowed to run at higher rates than they would otherwise expect too.

The Economist’s view is technology and innovation implemented thoughtfully, still relying on gas, but without typical 40 year commitments to infrastructure can still keep us on the right path to a low carbon future. That sounds as likely as Boris Johnson being Prime Minister by the time you read this. (Written on 7th July, 7:30am).

Oil companies are vindicated by current shortfall

Oil companies apparently feel that they get a bad rap, accused of profiteering through the current crisis, although still expected to step up and fill the gap caused by vanishing Russian gas.

These are the unsung heroes, who can now demonstrate the importance of their long term fossil fuel investments, ready to pick up the pieces when needed. The unexpected war, has upset a fine balance in Europe, demonstrating our dependence on oil and gas and the real gap between the energy, demanded by climate change and reality.

What technologies bridge the gap between fossil and renewable?

As a consumer, the advice is to buy an electric vehicle (EV) and replace your old gas boiler with a heat pump. There is plenty of evidence already, to show that EVs are being purchased in increasing numbers at least.

Norway has the highest market penetration of plug-in vehicles per person in the world. In 2021, 86% of new car sales were electric, while in the UK it was 11.6%. But UK sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) continues to grow because of the 2030 ban on new fossil fuel cars and the highest prices for petrol ever seen.

Heat pumps are already popular in Scandinavia because homes are well insulated and better suited to small temperature rises which don’t need big boosts of heat. They work like a reverse fridge, taking warmth from the outside air, ground or water source, concentrating the heat and transferring it inside. 85% of UK homes use gas boilers, accounting for a fifth of total carbon emissions. Well established in other European countries, the UK first needs to sort out the cost per kWh of electricity, which has been more than triple that of gas until recently, making the incentive to switch minimal at best. Insulating all UK homes properly, has to be the first step. Until then, the UK is likely to retain the dubious pleasure of being the biggest boiler maker in Europe.

Big company infrastructure

Natural gas has always been portrayed as the cleaner alternative to coal. But better detection via satellite primarily, shows that there are significant methane leaks from older gas pipelines. Methane has 80 times the warming power of CO2 and the situation is a lot worse than originally thought.

If natural gas is going to be the bridging fuel to a greener future of renewables and nuclear, then the current network has to be tightened up to prevent such leaks.

Given Europe’s commitment to be the greenest part of the world, it has to start by resolving the bigger problem of betting on a natural gas future.

A recently licensed new gas field called Jackdaw near Aberdeen, shows how that issue could be mitigated. All of the CO2 emissions associated with gas extraction are being compressed before being stored in an old gas field which is no longer in production.

New proposed infrastructure for natural European gas plants will be conditional on it being ready for next generation fuels such as hydrogen with carbon capture built-in. Blue hydrogen, which is the common way to produce the gas, becomes a lot greener when the methane is split, allowing the hydrogen to be used as fuel and the CO2 captured, which is already happening at the St Fergus gas terminal in Aberdeen.

4% of the UK’s total emissions is in scope energy, the energy taken to capture the gas in the first place. This will be significantly reduced by electrifying all of the processes which are currently powered by natural gas, something the Norwegian oil industry has been doing by laying electric cable to their production platforms.

Renewables have fast become cheaper than fossil fuels

Wind and solar energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many parts of the world. It’s happened more quickly than expected and is likely to be adopted by developing countries, while using gas as their bridging energy to a renewable energy world.

Consumer behaviour also has to change. Charging EVs at home overnight will become common, taking advantage of cheaper environmental tariffs, no different to the old days of Economy 7, for those of a certain age.

Solar panels must surely have a revitalised future, with or without government subsidy and should be mandatory for all new builds.

But renewable energy still comes with a problem yet to be properly solved - storage needs to move beyond short term batteries measured in hours, to weeks and months.

Part 2 next week.