World Earth Day 2024 was this week, Monday to be exact. Three emails landed to remind me but I couldn’t resist reading what the Hindustan Times said having come top of my subsequent search. According to the masthead information it was 36 degrees in New Delhi on Monday, hot information alongside the date and an offer to subscribe free for 14 days.
Their opening paragraph explained what can be found on the official Earth Day site. The theme is Planet vs Plastics bringing attention to plastic pollution and the need for a 60 per cent reduction in production by 2040. The emails I got were more gritty including a call to action to send a letter to the CEO of DOW Inc.
I first wrote about Earth Day in 2022. Founded in the United States by Wisconsin Senator, Gaylord Nelson and Denis Hayes, a Harvard student, galvanised by the deteriorating environment and the January 1969 oil spill in Santa Barbara, California. Attracting a cross-section of American society, a bipartisan crowd of 20 million in 1970 (those were the days) brought early success helping to explain why the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was created the same year.
It always occurs on 22nd April and became a global event in 1990 ignoring borders and encouraging us to feel more connected to our world adopting small changes to help protect it.
America is still the second largest polluter on the planet 50-plus years later, one ahead of India second only to China.
An indication of US sentiment towards climate change is revealed by a Potential Energy Coalition report on electric vehicles (EVs) part of a range of national surveys and messaging tests to nearly 60,000 US citizens.
Americans are not early adopters of EVs, only 8% of new cars sold were electric last year. The global average is 14%, EU (21%), UK (23%), China (29%) and Norway (88%).
When this question was broken down along party lines it’s not surprising that 39% of Republicans never expect to own an EV. Nationally, about 60% said they would lease or own one in the next 10 years, which is encouraging news for Tesla, GM, Ford and a bunch of EV start-ups.
Issues of ownership are similar to those you’ve likely heard elsewhere. On the question of cost, Democrats and Republicans are in complete agreement. They’re too expensive, although this is changing quickly because of US tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and market sentiment. According to Cox Automotive, (their version of the UK’s AutoTrader on steroids) the average EV sales price in November 2022 was $65,000 but has since declined to $52,345 due to oversupply. This is within $4,000 of average vehicle pricing.
Range anxiety is more perceived than actual. The range of most EVs is now 200 miles, some significantly further, while the average American travels about 30 miles a day. A single charge would cover most weekday driving with the added advantage for homeowners (62%) having the potential for home charging.
Less than half think EVs are better for the climate, which is a likely bias based on the mining of critical minerals for battery production. Somehow this is perceived as worse than oil extraction and refining. A modern, petrol-fuelled car remains worse for the environment than an EV.
Patriotism of a certain flavour is also playing its part. Stoked by The Donald, he argues that a second Biden term will result in a blood bath for the US auto industry because all EVs will be imported from China. It’s not true. More accurate is China’s current domination of battery, magnet and mineral supply chains, which is starting to be addressed through US and European government legislation.
The EPA’s new pollution standards of 56% EVs by 2032 plus 13% plug-in hybrids are being cited as taking away the US consumer’s freedom of choice which also isn’t the case. Sadly, new petrol engines will continue to be on sale for decades in addition to the vast second-hand market created as a result. In comparison, 22% of car maker’s sales must be EVs in the UK this year, 100% by 2035, a five-year slip from the original government target.
The lack of EV ownership in the US at the moment would partly explain why Exxon Mobil is now worth more than Tesla for the first time in over a year.
Tesla’s value has dropped by a third since January to $550bn, a long way from the $1.2trn valuation in 2021. It’s causing Elon Musk a problem or two who sees Tesla as his cash cow for more important projects like manned space flights to Mars. Having been granted a package of conditional stock options worth $55bn by Tesla’s board and meeting those conditions by 2021, a disgruntled shareholder called Richard Tornetta sued the company. He argued that Musk’s pay packet was illegal. A Delaware judge agreed, which is why Musk is asking shareholders to approve the reincorporation of Tesla in Texas. He wants his money back.
EV competition has been hotting up only to find a market slowing down. Innovation hasn’t stopped though as demonstrated by the battery swap technology developed by Nio, one of a handful of Chinese companies trying to catch Tesla. In an operation that only takes 5 minutes the car self-steers into position. Robots then replace the old battery with a new one 90% charged. Nio sold 160,000 vehicles last year and did thousands of battery swaps in China. Its first battery swap station in Europe is not surprisingly in Norway.
Tesla delivered 1.8m vehicles last year, its biggest Chinese rival Li Auto sold 380,000 with the help of Chinese government incentives, an enthusiastic local market and an efficient battery supply chain. Western-based rivals have fared less well.
Rivian, an American maker of SUVs and pickups, sold 50,000 cars in 2023. Lucid Motors, Saudi-backed and California-based only 6,000. Fisker a maker of cheap US EVs has run out of money and paused production. Lordstown, another American startup went bust.
The irony is two-thirds of Democrats polled think Elon Musk is a bad ambassador for EVs, 61% of Republicans disagree. Which is it then?
What has not been lost on US citizens from either party is the inevitable purchase price drop and the favourable cost to refuel with home charging for everyday motoring. No doubt the trope that it’s unpatriotic to buy an EV will continue for the rest of this year before it’s forgotten forever.